Tag Archives: VAR

The Dynamic Impact of Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Sudan: A Vector Autoregression Analysis (Published)

The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic effect of energy consumption and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Sudan by utilizing annual time series data spanning the period 1971- 2015. After identifying the series order of stationarity by utilizing ADF and PP unit root tests, this study makes use of a ARDL and VAR model. The reason is that ARDL is preferable method since it incorporates both short and long run in its specification and can be used even when there is a mixed integration order. A VAR is the powerful in variance decomposition and the possibility of observing long run forecast in addition to the dynamic response to shocks.the findings indicate long run relationship among the variables of interest. Particularly, the results disclose that energy consumption and CO2 emissions exert positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long run. The causality analysis of the gradual shift indicates a uni-directional relationship running from energy consumption to economic growth. The test results support energy-induced growth hypothesis, which reveals that energy use impact greatly on economic growth and energy saving and/or energy shocks negatively affect economic growth. This means that Sudan’s economy is energy-driven and cannot embark or initiate conservative energy policies and strategies compromising economic growth. with the emergence of energy supply and global warming issues and their conceivable consequences on economic performance, investigating their interrelations is thus essential, which has been neglected baselessly in the literature especially in the case of Sudan.  

Keywords: ARDL, CO2, GDP, Sudan, VAR, and energy consumption

Financial Sector Development, Economic Growth and Individual Welfare in Nigeria (Published)

Over the years, the Nigerian financial sector has been characterized by relative fragility and instability with intermittent incidences of liquidity challenges, bank distress, bail out, declining all share index and eroding investors’ confidence. Although several efforts have been made by policy makers and financial sector regulators towards stabilizing and strengthening the financial sector, available evidence suggest that the real sector is yet to reflect the gains of financial sector development. Consequently, researchers have made substantial effort to understand the implication of financial sector development for economic growth and economic welfare. It is against this backdrop that this study investigated the impact of financial sector development on economic and economic welfare. The study used time series data spanning between 1970 and 2015. Four major variables were used to proxy financial sector development namely; bank private sector credit, number of banks branch network, liquidity ratio and lending-deposits ratio. Economic growth was measured by growth of real GDP; discomfort index which measures macroeconomic welfare of citizenry as defined by Okun (1962) was computed by summation of inflation and unemployment rate. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used for estimations. The findings indicate that not all the financial sector development indicators under study have significant effect on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria. The results show that financial sector development indicators have positive impact on real GDP growth in Nigeria. However, contrary to expectations, private sector credit and lending – deposit spread had negative effects on economic growth. Similarly, apart from access to financial service, all other financial sector development indicators under study exerted negative effects on discomfort index, which implied that financial sector development was capable of improving economic welfare. The study therefore concluded that financial sector development that guarantees increased liquidity and stability of the financial sector is crucial for sustainable economic growth and increased welfare. The study also recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria and other financial sector regulators should strive to strengthen the financial sector and ensure increased private sector access to financial services such as bank credit through policy formulation and implementation as a means of improving macroeconomic performance of the nation.

Keywords: VAR, discomfort index, economic growth, financial sector development

The Analysis of Factors Affecting CPO Export Price of Indonesia (Published)

This study aims to determine and analyze the influences of world crude oil price shocks, world soybean oil prices, world CPO prices, palm oil TBS prices and the exchange rate of rupiah/US dollar towards the transmission on CPO export prices of Indonesia. This study uses quantitative analysis model with the approach of vector autogression model (VAR) which includes three main analysis tools namely Granger causality test, impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error decomposition of variance (FEDV). The variables which are used in this research are world petroleum price, world soybean oil price, CPO price of Rotterdam, CPO export price of Indonesia, fresh fruit bunch price and real exchange rate (real exchange rate). From Granger Causality test result, The price transmission process takes place the plot as follows: world crude oil prices significantly influence the CPO price of world (Rotterdam) which will significantly influence the world soybean oil prices and so on have a significant influence on the value of the real exchange rate which will influence the price of fresh fruit bunches and ultimately have a significant influence on CPO price export of Indonesia. From the estimation result of VAR model, there are significant influences of world crude oil price shocks, world soybean oil prices, world CPO prices, palm oil TBS prices and rupiah/US dollar exchange rates simultaneously to the transmission on CPO export prices of Indonesia. Based on analysis of Impulse response and variance decomposition, in the first period, one hundred percent average variability of CPO export price growth is significantly explained by the average growth of CPO export prices itself. In the subsequent period, the average variability of CPO export price growth is significantly explained by the average growth of CPO export price itself as well as other variables.

Keywords: : Petroleum Price, CPO export price, Granger Causality, Price Transmission, Real Exchange Rate, Soybean Oil Price, TBS, VAR, Variance Decomposition, impulse response function

Identification of the Person through the Iris of the Eye (Published)

The identification of a person through the iris of the eye of the very important issues to prove his identity. It was a preliminary treatment of the samples used in the study program. Then the samples classified into four groups namely (flower iris, jewels iris, shaker iris and stream iris. Have been through the program to find statistical features of each sample from each group and then re-create these features by way wavelet using MATLAB software, and these samples were (1) (15image of the iris of the type flower iris). (2) (15image of the iris of the type jewels iris). (3) (15 image of the iris of the type shaker iris) (4) (15 image of the iris of the type stream iris). When treatment was extracted a number of Mini (mean, std., var., Energy, Homogeneity, and Entropy). Features that represent each iris were used artificial neural network with a reverse spread as a way to distinguish. The four varieties and the number of inputs to the neural network Is six (the number of statistical features used) for all samples were neural network training them and extract precision results to distinguish primary treatment samples. Conversion technology application wavelet using the study samples and extract the same as the previous samples after image processing and conversion wavelets using (wavelet-2D)     a reverse spreading neural network as a way to distinguish the four varieties previous input itself For all samples)

Keywords: Energy, Entropy. Artificial Neural Network., Flower Iris, Jewels Iris, Mean Std., Shaker Iris and Stream Iris, VAR, homogeneity

AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF DEMAND FOR LIQUID FINANCIAL ASSETS (Published)

This study empirically estimates the behaviour of demand for liquid financial assets, as it is one of the most important recurring issues in theory and application of macroeconomics, and examines the stability of the same in the Sudanese context. The study covered the period 1993 to 2012. The results show that, there is a strong transactions motive for holding liquid financial assets by individuals and banks in Sudan. That happened after the liberalization process and utilization of the credit and debit cards. And also, implementation of Islamic financing techniques; specifically, after the open market policy that allow the functioning of private and Islamic banks along with Khartoum Securities Exchange to join the financial sector. The reliability of the estimation results were questioned due to the shortcomings of traditional techniques. A modern estimation technique was introduced, like cointegration technique. However, findings of cointegration have been interpreted as a sign of constancy of parameter estimates. The empirical analysis shows that the demand for liquid financial assets is a function of national income and negatively behaving with changes in prices and rates of return. ADF test for unit roots results show a non-stationary behavior, and then VAR is applied along with Johansen co-integration method analysis of a multivariate system of equations to test for the existence of a long run relationship between the determinants that shows the existence of a reasonably stable demand for money and other liquid financial assets function in Sudan. Since inflation (continuous prices rising) is exogenous in demand for money and other liquid financial assets function, therefore, the central monetary authority, namely, Central Bank of Sudan and Ministry of Finance are not able to control the price-rises in such open markets

Keywords: Demand for liquid financial assets, GLS test statistics, Islamic financing techniques, VAR, error correction model and co-integration