Design of a Renewable Energy Output Prediction System for 1000mw Solar-Wind Hybrid Power Plant (Published)
Problems associated with non-renewable energy sources such as fossil fuels make it necessary to move to cleaner renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. But the wind and sun are both intermittent sources of energy therefore accurate forecasts of wind and solar power are necessary to ensure the safety, stability and economy of utilizing these resources in large scale power generation. In this study, five meteorological parameters namely Temperature, Rainfall, Dew Point, Relative Humidity and Cloud Cover were collected for the year 2012 and used to predict wind and solar power output in Jos, Nigeria. The study used prediction algorithms such as Regression techniques and Artificial Neural Networks to predict the output of a 1000mW Solar-Wind Hybrid Power Plant over a period of one year. Individual prediction techniques were compared and Isotonic Regression was found to have the highest accuracy with errors of 40.5% in predicting solar power generation and 35.4% in predicting wind power generation. The relatively high levels of error are attributed to several limitations of the research work.
Solar energy technology and development in Nigeria is still at its rudimentary stage. The population is very optimistic that solar energy would offer a great alternative to the nation’s overall energy needs. Nigeria is well located within the humid tropics and equatorial axis with abundant sunshine, high radiation intensity, vast open spaces for areal energy capture and great opportunities for solar energy technologies. Experiences from some advanced countries of the world like USA, Australia, Germany and Switzerland indicate that a solar energy plant is capital intensive and requires large areas of capture. Solar energy, as a renewable natural energy resource offers mankind with variety of direct and indirect solar energy technologies. The direct solar energy varieties include photovoltaic and solar thermal, among others, while the indirect solar energy varieties include hydropower, wind power and so on. In general, the country is in great need for solar energy varieties for her domestic, commercial, educational, agricultural and industrial energy needs.