Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Matters For Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflow? An Empirical Reflection of the Nigerian Situation (Published)
The research has been on the Real Exchange Rate (RER) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow. This has become necessary given the declining competitiveness of the Nigeria currency and economy. The study covered the period between 1981 and 2017. The Cointegration and the Error correction Model of the Ordinary least squares technique were used to analyze the data. The result of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test indicates that the variables became stationary after the first difference was taken. The Johansen Cointegration test indicates a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Also the result of the parsimonious Error Correction Model (ECM) indicates that the volatility of the Real Exchange Rate (RER) has a negative and significant impact on the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Nigeria. The openness of the economy has a positive and significant relationship with the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The interest rates has a negative and significant impact on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow. It was therefore recommended amongst others that the government should not only concentrate on the manipulation of the exchange rate but should make concerted efforts to diversify the productive base of the economy so as to increase the competiveness of the Nigerian economy and hence its currency.
This study aims to determine and analyze the influences of world crude oil price shocks, world soybean oil prices, world CPO prices, palm oil TBS prices and the exchange rate of rupiah/US dollar towards the transmission on CPO export prices of Indonesia. This study uses quantitative analysis model with the approach of vector autogression model (VAR) which includes three main analysis tools namely Granger causality test, impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error decomposition of variance (FEDV). The variables which are used in this research are world petroleum price, world soybean oil price, CPO price of Rotterdam, CPO export price of Indonesia, fresh fruit bunch price and real exchange rate (real exchange rate). From Granger Causality test result, The price transmission process takes place the plot as follows: world crude oil prices significantly influence the CPO price of world (Rotterdam) which will significantly influence the world soybean oil prices and so on have a significant influence on the value of the real exchange rate which will influence the price of fresh fruit bunches and ultimately have a significant influence on CPO price export of Indonesia. From the estimation result of VAR model, there are significant influences of world crude oil price shocks, world soybean oil prices, world CPO prices, palm oil TBS prices and rupiah/US dollar exchange rates simultaneously to the transmission on CPO export prices of Indonesia. Based on analysis of Impulse response and variance decomposition, in the first period, one hundred percent average variability of CPO export price growth is significantly explained by the average growth of CPO export prices itself. In the subsequent period, the average variability of CPO export price growth is significantly explained by the average growth of CPO export price itself as well as other variables.