The Nexuses between Wind and Rainfall Patterns: Using Wind to Predict Rainfall for Enhanced Adaptability to Rainfall Related Hazards (Published)
The ability to predict rainfall patterns is crucial for making informed decisions on proper adaptation to extreme climatic events like floods and droughts. This study assessed ways through which wind direction and speed could be used to predict the nearness of the beginning and end of the rainy season and the amount of rainfall expected to be received during the rainy season. The study was conducted in Mwanga District in Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania. It used local perceptions on the nexus between wind and rainfall patterns collected through structured and in-depth interviews involving 110 and 19 respondents, respectively. The local perceptions were corroborated with findings from data on rainfall and wind of the period from 1962 to 2021. It was found that wind tended to blow from the east most of the time and from the south during the long rainy season. Farmers can use the direction of wind to predict the nearness of the beginning and end of the rainy season. If they find that wind blows from the abnormal direction at the beginning of the rainy season, they conclude that the rainy season is yet to begin. Besides, if wind continues blowing from the abnormal direction, after the rainy season has begun, they conclude that rainfall will be less than normal. Further, occurrence of cyclones during the dry season indicates that the short rainy season will start soon. If the frequency of the cyclones is high, then heavy rains will be received. Thus, wind is an important element of weather that could be used to predict the beginning and end of the rainy season as well as the amount of rainfall that will be received. It is, therefore, important that this local knowledge is formally recognized so that it can be used by as many people as possible. Moreover, the local predictions of the pattern of rainfall based on wind should be integrated with modern forecasts to improve the reliability of the predictions at local level. This will lead to the making of informed decisions on adaptation to rainfall-related hazards, and improvement of adaptability and resilience to such hazards.
Citation: Lusiru S.N. (2023) The Nexuses between Wind and Rainfall Patterns: Using Wind to Predict Rainfall for Enhanced Adaptability to Rainfall Related Hazards, International Journal of Weather, Climate Change and Conservation Research, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. 1-14
Keywords: Prediction, Rainfall Patterns, Wind direction, Wind speed, adaptability
Stochastic Modelling/Game Theory Analysis of Scoreline (Published)
Prediction of a football match result arouses interest from different points of view; for different people, Hence the need for this work which aims at analysing the scores of the four top English clubs to enable prediction of future outcome of matches to be made in a more scientific manner. From the analysis of the scoreline of the top four EPL clubs; Manchester United (M.U), Chelsea (C), Arsenal (A), and Manchester City (M.C) from (2002-2015) using Game theory and Stochastic modelling, Chelsea emerged the best team with a selection probability of 0.41 while Manchester United also emerged second best with a selection probability of 0.37. From the steady state transition probability matrix, for all the six possible pairs of the four clubs shows that the probability of M.U wining C at home is 0.44 while C wins M.U at home with probability 0.67 depicting C as the stronger club. Similarly M.U is stronger than A, with a 0.71 winning probability as against 0.25 winning probability for A, while M.U and M.C appears to be equally matched with 0.48 and 0.49 probability of winning. C against A reveals a probability of 0.58 and 0.25 for A vs C. while C vs M.C showed C to have an upper hand with a 0.71 probability of winning and 0.44 for M.C vs C. Finally A vs M.C gives the two teams 0.53 and 0.42 winning probabilities. Thus, the two most viable clubs out of the four clubs are Manchester United and Chelsea. Using the four step TPM we also predicted the 2015/2016 matches to obtain their various probabilities given the previous game.
Keywords: English Premier League, Football, Game theory, Operations Research, Prediction, Stochastic modelling
Models and Quality Control Charts for the Prediction of Compressive Cement Strength (Published)
This paper presents quality control charts techniques usually applied in quality control of compressive cement strength. Nonlinear regression model useful for the prediction of compressive cement strength at 28 days was proposed. Combining the prediction and quality control tools, a PI (Proportional Integral) controller useful for the regulation of 28 days compressive cement strength around a target (39 Mpa) was constructed. Results of the one-year prediction of quarterly compressive cement strength aligned with the values of the historical data obtained from a leading Cement Company in Nigeria for the years, 2011-2015.
Keywords: Cement, Compressive Strength, Nonlinear Regression, Prediction, Quality control
Emotional Intelligence Competencies as Predictors of Academic Adjustment of First Year University Undergraduates in Rivers State, Nigeria (Published)
This study was designed to determine the extent to which emotional intelligence competencies predict academic adjustment of first year university undergraduates in Rivers State, Nigeria. Correlational design by multiple prediction was adopted for the study. Two research questions and two corresponding hypotheses guided the conduct of the study at 0.05 alpha levels. A sample of 382 first year university undergraduates of Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Port Harcourt, 2015/2016 academic session was drawn from the population through simple and proportional stratified random sampling techniques. Two instruments namely; Mangal Emotional Intelligence Inventory and Student Adaptation to College Questionnaire – Academic subscale were used for data collection. Simple and multiple regression analyses were used for data analysis. All data were subjected to analysis using statistical package for social science (SPSS). Results showed that; emotional intelligence competencies (self-awareness, relationship management, social-awareness and self-management) taken together statistically significantly predicted academic adjustment of first year university undergraduates; on the basis of individual contributions, self-management and self-awareness were significant contributors while social-awareness and relationship management were not. Based on the findings, conclusion and recommendations were made.
Keywords: Academic Adjustment, Competencies, Emotional, Intelligence, Prediction
Stochastic Modeling/Game Theory Analysis of Scoreline (Published)
Prediction of a football match result arouses interest from different points of view; for different people, Hence the need for this work which aims at analysing the scores of the four top English clubs to enable prediction of future outcome of matches to be made in a more scientific manner. From the analysis of the scoreline of the top four EPL clubs; Manchester United (M.U), Chelsea (C), Arsenal (A), and Manchester City (M.C) from (2002-2015) using Game theory and Stochastic modelling, Chelsea emerged the best team with a selection probability of 0.41 while Manchester United also emerged second best with a selection probability of 0.37. From the steady state transition probability matrix, for all the six possible pairs of the four clubs shows that the probability of M.U wining C at home is 0.44 while C wins M.U at home with probability 0.67 depicting C as the stronger club. Similarly M.U is stronger than A, with a 0.71 winning probability as against 0.25 winning probability for A, while M.U and M.C appears to be equally matched with 0.48 and 0.49 probability of winning. C against A reveals a probability of 0.58 and 0.25 for A vs C. while C vs M.C showed C to have an upper hand with a 0.71 probability of winning and 0.44 for M.C vs C. Finally A vs M.C gives the two teams 0.53 and 0.42 winning probabilities. Thus, the two most viable clubs out of the four clubs are Manchester United and Chelsea. Using the four step TPM we also predicted the 2015/2016 matches to obtain their various probabilities given the previous game.
Keywords: English Premier League, Football, Game theory, Operations Research, Prediction, Stochastic modelling
Dynamic Decision Tree Based Ensembled Learning Model to Forecast Flight Status (Published)
This paper explains the development of an enhanced predictive classifier for flight status that will reduce over fitting observed in existing models. A dynamic approach from ensemble learning technique called bagging algorithm was used to train a number of base learners using a base learning algorithm. The results of the various classifiers were combined, voting was done, by majority the most voted class was picked as the final output. This output was subjected to the decision tree algorithm to produce various replica sets generated from the training set to create various decision tree models. Object-Oriented Analysis and Design (OO-AD) methodology was adopted for the design and implementation was done with C# programming language. The result achieved was favorable as it was found to predict at an accuracy of 78.3% as against 68.2% accuracy of the existing systems which indicated an enhancement.
Keywords: : Flight Status, Bagging Algorithm, Classification, Ensemble learning, Prediction
Earthquake Prediction in Awi, Akamkpa Local Government Area of Cross River State, Nigeria (Published)
In earthquake prediction, the changes in the physical properties of the rocks are closely monitored. The parameters that are usually monitored include seismic P velocity, ground uplift, radon emission, electrical resistivity, number of seismic events, etc. This study monitored the seismic P velocity for a period of five years (2006 to 2010) in the study area. The data shows that the travel time of the seismic P waves did not change during the period under investigation and therefore the velocity of the P waves did not change. Consequently, we do not expect an earthquake to occur in the study area in the near future
Keywords: Earthquake, P Waves, Prediction, Seismic, Velocity
Earthquake Prediction in Awi, Akamkpa Local Government Area of Cross River State, Nigeria. (Published)
In earthquake prediction, the changes in the physical properties of the rocks are closely monitored. The parameters that are usually monitored include seismic P velocity, ground uplift, radon emission, electrical resistivity, number of seismic events, etc. This study monitored the seismic P velocity for a period of five years (2006 to 2010) in the study area. The data shows that the travel time of the seismic P waves did not change during the period under investigation and therefore the velocity of the P waves did not change. Consequently, we do not expect an earthquake to occur in the study area in the near future.
Keywords: Earthquake, P Waves, Prediction, Seismic, Velocity
