AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF A SHIFT FROM INDIRECT TO DIRECT TAXES IN COTE D’IVOIRE (Published)
This paper examines the long-run effect of a shift from indirect to direct taxes for Cote d’Ivoire using data for the period 1960 to 2006. The residual-based test of Gregory and Hansen (1996) is employed to test for cointegration and the Engle-Yoo (1987) three-step procedure is used to estimate the long-run effect of tax variables on real output. The results reveal that tax burden and tax mix are negatively associated with output, with tax burden having a much greater adverse effect on GDP than tax mix. The effect of the tax mix on GDP is contingent on the level of the tax burden and diminishes as tax burden increases. Our estimates also suggest that up to a threshold level of tax burden of 17.57%, increased direct taxation relative to indirect taxation is associated with decreased output. But beyond this threshold a move from indirect to direct taxes is likely to lead to higher levels of output.