Tag Archives: Exports

A Critical Analysis of China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement: Learning Experiences for Pakistan With Respect To Its Future FTAS (Published)

Pakistan is currently negotiating with Thailand, Turkey, Singapore and Iran for its bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) whereas, it has already implemented FTAs concluded with Sri Lanka, Malaysia and China, which are effective until now. Whilst negotiation for future FTAs are under way it is necessary for Pakistan to learn lessons from one of its most important FTA, namely the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA) which has not been as beneficial for Pakistan as was being expected before the implementation of the agreement. Therefore, the focus point of discussion of this research paper is to analyse critically the China Pakistan Free Trade Agreement in order to find out why Pakistan could not derive the expected benefits form CPFTA? Recommendations will also be provided for consideration of the Government of Pakistan with respect to signing of its future FTAs so that those could be used for driving the full benefits for Pakistan from its upcoming FTAs.

Keywords: Exports, Free Trade Agreement, Imports, Negotiations

A Critical Analysis of China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement: Learning Experiences for Pakistan With Respect to its Future FTAS (Published)

Pakistan is currently negotiating with Thailand, Turkey, Singapore and Iran for its bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) whereas, it has already implemented FTAs concluded with Sri Lanka, Malaysia and China, which are effective until now. Whilst negotiation for future FTAs are under way it is necessary for Pakistan to learn lessons from one of its most important FTA, namely the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA) which has not been as beneficial for Pakistan as was being expected before the implementation of the agreement. Therefore, the focus point of discussion of this research paper is to analyse critically the China Pakistan Free Trade Agreement in order to find out why Pakistan could not derive the expected benefits form CPFTA? Recommendations will also be provided for consideration of the Government of Pakistan with respect to signing of its future FTAs so that those could be used for driving the full benefits for Pakistan from its upcoming FTAs.

Keywords: Exports, Free Trade Agreement, Imports, Negotiations

Disaggregated Imports and Economic Growth in Nigeria (Published)

This study examines how much of the variance in economic growth can be explained by various categories of imports in Nigeria. The study is set to investigate whether it is the import-led or export-led growth hypothesis that holds for Nigeria. The Johansen testing approach to cointegration and the standard desk top pairwise Granger-causality test technique were implimented to achieve this objective. The cointegration test results demonstrate that the relationship between economic growth and decomposed import variables in Nigeria are stable and coalescing in the long run. Particular categories of interest in this study are Food & Life Animal, Manufactured Goods, and Machinery & Transport Equipment as the trio constitute over 75 percent of aggregate import bills during the period under review. Evidence from the pairwise granger casualty tests, contrary to expectation, suggests that import-led growth hypothesis does not hold for Nigeria. These results cannot be divorced from certain factors such as lack of capacity to take advantage of the advanced technologies embodied in the imported capital goods, inability to sustain installed manufacturing capacity and corrupt practices in procurement processes, associated with contracts for the importation of manufactured and capital goods for most failed capital projects.

Keywords: Cointrgration, Disaggregated Imports, Exports, GDP growth, Granger Causality

Towards An Understanding of the Dynamics of Anglo-Nigerian Trade Relations, 1971 To 1990 (Published)

Nigerian-British Trade relations spanned the pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial period. The main thrust of the paper is to irradiate the dynamics of Anglo-Nigerian Trade Relations during the period, 1971 to 1990. The paper examines the trade interactions in commodities especially imports and exports that occurred between Nigeria and Britain and looks at the evolving nature of the relations during the period. It also highlights the pattern of dependency in Anglo-Nigerian Trade relations and how the peculiarities of the period affected the character of the relations. The paper concluded by submitting that Anglo-Nigerian Trade relations during 1971 to1990 were more beneficial to Britain than Nigeria because of disequilibrium in Trade Relations, payment, difficulties on the part of Nigeria and her failure to meaningfully diversity its exports, which had over-concentration on oil to the relative sheer neglect of agricultur., There is therefore need to address those areas so as to redress the imbalance.

Keywords: Anglo-Nigerian, Dynamics, Exports, Imports, Trade Imbalance, Trade Relations

EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE BALANCE IN GHANA- TESTING THE VALIDITY OF THE MARSHALL LERNER CONDITION (Published)

Currency depreciation has been lauded as a means of improving a country’s trade balance borrowing from the Marshall Lerner Condition that the sum of the elasticity or the coefficient of the trade balance in respect of the exchange rate be greater or equal to unity. This paper examined exchange rate and trade balance in Ghana testing the validity of the Marshall Lerner Condition at aggregate level. The data spanned from 1980-2013 sourced from World Development Indicators. Co integration and vector error correction mechanism (VECM) was used to estimate the short as well as the long run parameters. The result of the findings showed that real effective exchange is negatively linked to trade balance in long run. In the short run the lag one coefficient shows a positive sign implying that trade balance deteriorate in the short run due to some contractual obligations already signed by the domestic country with the trading partners. However in the long run the coefficient shows that a depreciation of cedi all things being equal will lead to an improvement in Ghana’s trade balance. Though the Marshall Lerner condition is not met in Ghana because of the REER coefficient less than unity but evidence from the result indicates that depreciation can be used to improve on the trade balance. The estimated coefficient of the error correction term is -0.3696 which implies that the speed of adjustment is approximately 37. percent per quarter. This negative and significant coefficient is an indication that co integrating relationship exists among the variables. The paper recommends that Ghana should devalue its currency to move from the deficit side of the J curve to the surplus side since evidence from the result shows that depreciation or devaluation can substantially improves the trade balance in the long run.

Keywords: Currency depreciation, Exports, Imports, Income, Marshall Lerner Condition, Trade balance

SHIFTING GLOBAL ECONOMIC PARADIGM (Published)

The 21st century was started with the dawn of a new economic puzzle of China’s fast economic growth. It has surprised the economists. The Chinese constant upward growth has shifted economic paradigm and the axis of growth appear to have been shifted from the western hemisphere to the eastern hemisphere. Some economists term it a 21st century miracle. The author has determined to test this miracle through empirical framework. Main research question of this study to explore the answer of the question why China is recording consistent rapid economic growth? Is this growth in the same way as other developed countries experienced in the past or is it a new phenomenon-a shift in global economic paradigm.The objective of this empirical analysis is to investigate into the causes of fast economic growth of China in the context whether this growth pattern is a normal phenomenon or an indicator of shifting global economic paradigm.Our study is spread over a period starting from 1980 to 2011 because of the introduction of economic reforms and massive economic growth. We have collected data from different sources such as China Bureau of National Statistics, IMF, World Bank and relevant research Journals and books. The selected variables for this research paper are: labour productivity, investment, exports, Research and Development expenses, capital stock, open door policy, real exchange rate and US GDP. We used ordinary least square (OLS) model to measure change in the selected variables. Five tests were used to test the stability of the model. The Econometric results show that international trade and investment in capital stock and R&D expenses by Chinese Government are the major determinants, which are responsible for enhancing labour productivity and output in the long-run, Similarly, real exchange rate appears as an important determinant to explain change in output in the long-run

Keywords: China, Exports, Investment, Labour productivity, Open door policy, Output, R&D

Effects of Exchange Rate Liberalization on French Beans Exports in Kenya (Review Completed - Accepted)

The exports of French beans are one of the leading contributors to foreign exchange earnings in Kenya. Nevertheless, the economic impacts of exchange rate liberalization on French beans exports in Kenya are unclear. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the magnitude and direction of the effects of exchange rate liberalization on French beans exports from Kenya to its major trading partners in the European Union. Monthly data for a fixed exchange regime represented by the period from 1990- 1993 and a flexible regime represented by the period from 1994-2011 was used in the estimation of an export demand model. The empirical results show that the liberalization of the exchange rate led to an increase in the French beans export volumes from Kenya to the European Union. The paper recommends maintenance of a competitive exchange rate and export promotion in order to boost Kenya’s French beans exports.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Exports, Liberalization, Time Series