Tag Archives: Exchange Rate

Evaluation of Petroleum Crude Oil Price Volatility on Nigeria National Income and Nigeria Economy (Published)

Oil dependent nations have the potential of economic growth and development in a stable international oil price system. However, the effect of oil price volatility in the evaluation of Nigeria national income and economy is imperative in the face of Nigeria reliance on oil becoming a dream as the negative effect on budget implementation is clearly discovered by researchers. This study evaluated the effect of crude oil price volatility on Nigeria economy and the national income. The study adopted ex-post facto research design. The study covered a period of 22years from 1995 to 2017.  Descriptive and inferential (regression) statistics were adopted for the study. The result showed that oil price volatility has significant combined  effect on Nigeria’s economy (Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product and Per Capital Income) Adj.R2 of 0.432;0.449 &0.478, F-Statistics of 7.858, 9.488 ,& 9.238 and p-value 0.004, 0.002 & 0.002.Oil price volatility has no significant negative  impact on Gross Domestic Product with β22 of -0.004,R2 of 0.023  t-statistics of -0.630 & p-value  of 0.537;oil price volatility has no significant  negative impact on Gross National Product with β22 of -0.005,R2of 0.027,t-statistics of -0.692 and p-value of 0.498;also oil price volatility has no significant negative impact on Per Capital Income with β22 of -0.004,R2 of 0.027,t-statistics of -0.688 & p-value of 0.500.The study concluded that oil price volatility affects national income and Nigeria economy significantly.  The study recommended that Nigeria should adopt policies that will address negative oil price shocks so that the budgetary system and national income will not be affected.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, National Income, Nigeria economy, gross national product, oil price volatility

Exchange Rate Reform and the Dynamics of Net-Export in Nigeria (Published)

In this paper, the short- and long-term empirical relationship between net-export and exchange rate variation in Nigeria was estimated using error correction model (ECM) and Fully-Modified least squares (FM-OLS) for the period, 1986-2017. The impacts of degree of openness and tariff on net-export were equally examined over the study period. Prior to the actual estimation of the model, the series were subjected to unit root test using Phillips-Perron method and the results that they are all first difference stationary. Additionally, the cointegration test result revealed that the linear combinations of the of the nonstationary series leads to long run relationship amongst them. The parsimonious ECM shows that the variables jointly exert significant impact on net-export in the short run. It was also observed from the error correction coefficient that any short run disequilibrium in the system can be reconciled at 53.47 percent to achieve long run equilibrium position. The estimated cointegrating regression model shows that nominal effective exchange rate exerts significant positive impact on net-export in the long run. Overall, the F-test result for joint significant of the series reveal that the all the variables are collectively important in influencing changes in net-export. On the basis of the findings, it is recommended that policy makers should ensure that exchange rate policy prevalent in the Nigeria economy is tailored towards making exports more competitive in the international market in order to boost net-export growth and maintain stability in the domestic economy.

Keywords: Degree of Openness, ECM and FM-OLS, Exchange Rate, Net-export, Tariff

Influence of Trade Liberalization on the Growth of Nigerian Economy: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (Published)

This study examined the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth proxied by gross domestic growth rate in Nigeria. The study specifically assessed whether there is a long run and short run causal relationship running from trade liberalization to economic growth in Nigeria. Trade liberalization was measured using trade openness, exchange rate, total import trade, total export trade and balance of trade. The data for the study were source from the CBN statistical bulletin for the period 1986 to 2014. The study used the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) technique for data analysis. Findings from the analyses showed that trade liberalization has no long run causal relationship with gross domestic product growth rate in Nigeria. Also, trade openness and exchange rate have no short run causal relationship with gross domestic product growth rate in Nigeria. Lastly, total import trade, total export trade and balance of trade has short run causal relationship with gross domestic product growth rate in Nigeria. The study on the basis of these findings recommends the efficient use of total import trade, total export trade and balance of trade policy measures of trade liberalization in other to maximally benefit from trade liberalization.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, Trade Liberalization, trade openness

Monetary Policy and the Performance of Nigeria Capital Market: A Time Variant Analysis (Published)

This study examined the relationship between monetary policy and the performance of the Nigerian capital market using annual time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The objective was to examine the long and short run relationship that exists between monetary policy variables and the performance of Nigerian capital market. Market capitalization and market turnover was modeled as the function of interest rate, exchange rate, monetary aggregates, monetary policy rate and treasury bill rate. The study applied the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression technique and causality, unit root, cointegration, vector error correction estimates. Findings revealed that interest rate, exchange rate monetary aggregate and monetary policy rate have positive and significant relationship with market capitalization but treasury bill rate have negative and significant relationship with market capitalization. Monetary policy rate, monetary aggregate and exchange rate have positive relationship with market turnover while Treasury bill rate and interest rate have negative and significant relationship with market turnover. The unit root test found the variables stationary at first difference, the cointergration test validates the presence of long run relationship, the granger causality test proved unidirectional causality while the vector error   correction estimates justified adequate speed of adjustment. The study concludes that monetary policy has significant relationship with performance of Nigeria capital market. We recommend that the monetary authorities should ensure effect monetary policy transmission mechanism that will enhance the performance of the capital market.

Keywords: Capital market, Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy, Time Series Monetary Policy Rate

Banking Sector Reforms and the Performance of Banking Business in Nigeria – An Econometric Analysis (Published)

The study examines the effect of financial reforms on banking sector efficiency in Nigeria from 1986- 2016. The objective of the study is to evaluate the extent to which exchange rate, (EXCH), interest rate (INT) and liquidity (LQT) have affected the efficiency of banking operations in Nigeria. The dependent variable in measuring banking sector efficiency is proxy by Nonperforming Loan (NPL). The OLS regression was adopted for test of the three hypotheses formulated. The findings indicate that financial reform targets have significantly affected banking sector efficiency in Nigeria in the long run. The study recommends that the regulatory and supervisory framework should be strengthened while interest rate policy should be made to stimulate savings through high real deposit rate and lending rate so as to promote financial deepening and thus banking efficiency.

Keywords: Banking Efficiency., Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Liquidity, financial reforms

The Dynamics of Human Capital Development and Industrial Growth in Nigeria (Published)

This article is aimed at providing empirical evidence on the impact of human capital development on industrial growth in Nigeria. Time series data spanning 1976-2016 period on relevant variables were analyzed using both descriptive and econometric techniques. ADF procedures were used to test for stationarity of the variables. The results show that the variables moved towards equilibrium in the long-run. The results also show that recurrent expenditure on education and health has a negative impact on industrial growth. The goodness of fit was encouraging. This article asserts that rigorous pursuance of graduate skill acquisition programmes as well as adherence to the 26 per cent minimum budgetary allocation demanded by UNESCO for education which will spur improvement in human capital development will impact industrial growth positively. More-so, incentives such as tax holidays, pioneer reliefs and exemptions that aids increased investment in industrial growth be vigorously pursued by governments at all levels in Nigeria.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Human Capital Development, Industrial Growth, Nigeria, expenditure on education, expenditure on health, gross capital formation

External Debt and Economic Growth: The Nigeria Experience (Published)

This research work was aimed at ascertaining the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was adopted for the study. While data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), External Debt Stock and External Debt Service Payment were obtained from World Bank International Debt Statistics, Exchange Rate data were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2013. The period of study was 1980-2013. Model was formulated and data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Square. Diagnostic tests were conducted using Augmented Dick Fuller Unit Root Test, Co-integration and Error Correction Model. The independent variable was GDP, while the explanatory variables were External Debt Stock, External Debt Service Payment and Exchange Rate. We discovered that External Debt had a positive relationship with Gross Domestic Product at short run, but a negative relationship at long run. Also, while External Debt Service Payment had negative relationship with Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate had a positive relationship with it. The paper concluded that exchange rate fluctuation had positive impact on the Nigerian economy while external debt stock and debt service payment had negative impact on the same economy. The study recommended amongst others, that Debt Management Office should set mechanism in motion to ensure that loans were utilized for purposes for which they were acquired as well as set a ceiling for borrowing for states and federal governments based on well-defined criteria.

Keywords: Debt Stock, Exchange Rate, External Debt, External Debt Service Payment, Gross Domestic Product

IMPACT OF INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (2000-2009) (Published)

The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the existence of a relationship between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria. The methodology employed in this study is the quantitative research design. Consumer price index (CPI) was used as a proxy for inflation and the GDP as proxy for economic growth, to examine the relationship. The scope of the study spanned from 2000 to 2009. Ordinary least square method and t-test was used to test the variables most likely to impact on economic growth in Nigeria due to inflation. The findings also shows that there is strong relationship between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria, that exchange rate has positive impact on economic growth and that high interest rate discourages investment and hence forestalls economic growth. It is therefore, recommended that the monetary policies aimed at exchange rate be strengthened through effective supervision and regulatory framework of financial system by the monetary framework of financial system by the monetary authorities. Continuous monetary policies that will achieve the desired macroeconomic stability, increase in private sector credits and there is also need fro more effective management of interest rate in Nigeria

Keywords: Economic Stability., Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate, Monetary Authorities, economic growth

ANALYSIS OF BANKS FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN A LIBERALIZED BANKING ENVIRONMENT: A STUDY OF FIVE SELECTED BANKS IN NIGERIA. (Published)

The very essence of this research was to assess the financial performances of banks in a liberalized banking environment using an ordinary Least Square (OLS) method of regression analysis to analyze five selected banks in Nigeria. The time series properties of the variables were investigated by conducting a unit root test to determine the stationarity status of the data using annual series data spanning from 2001 – 2010. The analysis was further extended to cointegration and error correction modeling (ECM) technique in order to test for the stationarity status of the data by conducting a unit root test using the Dickey–Fuller (DF) and Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test. The objective of this research among others is to find out the effect of the nominal lending rate, the exchange rate and the credit volume on banks financial performances in terms of their profitability. The data sources were mainly from a ten year financial summary of the banks selected and CBN Statistical Bulletin, various years. From the empirical evidence made from the study so far, it was discovered that the nominal lending rate and the total credit had a positive impact on the profit of the five selected banks under review. Only exchange rate has a negative significance which is contrary to the other variables studied. The overall submission was that the variables employed are statistically significant as over 98 percent of them were explained at the long run. The researcher, therefore, recommends that to improve banks financial performance, the banks need a good regulatory environment that will enable them to expand their scope of business but strictly within the financial service industry and also good corporate governance that will allow for transparency and minimize fraud in the bank.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Financial Performance, Interest Rate, Liberalization, Total credit

MODELLING THE VOLATILITY OF EXCHANGE RATES IN RWANDESE MARKETS (Published)

This work applied Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) approach to modelling volatility in Rwanda Exchange rate returns. The Autoregressive (AR) model with GARCH errors was fitted to the daily exchange rate returns using Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation (Q-MLE) method to get the current volatility. Asymptotic consistency and asymptotic normality of estimated parameters were given. Akaike Information criterion was used for appropriate GARCH model selection while Jarque Bera test used for normality testing revealed that both returns and residuals have fat tails behaviour. It was shown that the estimated model fits Rwanda exchange rate returns data well.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, GARCH model, Model, Quasi Maximum Likelihood, Volatility

ESTIMATION OF EXTREME VALUE AT RISK IN RWANDA EXCHANGE RATE (Published)

Estimating the probability of rare and extreme events is a crucial issue in the risk estimation of exchange rate returns. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a well-developed theory in the field of probability that studies the distribution of extreme realizations of a given distribution function, or of a stochastic process, satisfying certain assumptions. This work has fitted the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to the excess returns assuming the residuals are independent and identically distributed. The results are used to estimate extreme Value at Risk (VaR) in Rwanda exchange rate process.

Keywords: Confidence intervals, EVT approach, Exchange Rate, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Value at Risk

APPLICATION OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY FOR EXTREME QUANTILES ESTIMATION IN RWANDA EXCHANGE RATE (Review Completed - Accepted)

Estimating the probability of rare and extreme events is a crucial issue in the risk estimation of exchange rate returns. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a well developed theory in the field of probability that studies the distribution of extreme realizations of a given distribution function, or of a stochastic process, satisfying certain assumptions.  This work has fitted the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) proposed by EVT to the excesses returns over the threshold to estimate quantiles in the tails of independent and identically distributed residuals and asymptotic properties of the estimators were given. The results were applied to estimate extreme quantiles in the Rwanda exchange rate process.

Keywords: Confidence intervals, EVT approach, Exchange Rate, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Quantiles estimation

ANALYSIS OF BANKS FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN A LIBERALIZED BANKING ENVIRONMENT: A STUDY OF FIVE SELECTED BANKS IN NIGERIA. (Review Completed - Accepted)

The very essence of this research was to assess the financial performances of banks in a liberalized banking environment using an ordinary Least Square (OLS) method of regression analysis to analyze five selected banks in Nigeria. The time series properties of the variables were investigated by conducting a unit root test to determine the stationarity status of the data using annual series data spanning from 2001 – 2010. The analysis was further extended to cointegration and error correction modeling (ECM) technique in order to test for the stationarity status of the data by conducting a unit root test using the Dickey–Fuller (DF) and Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test. The objective of this research among others is to find out the effect of the nominal lending rate, the exchange rate and the credit volume on banks financial performances in terms of their profitability. The data sources were mainly from a ten year financial summary of the banks selected and CBN Statistical Bulletin, various years. From the empirical evidence made from the study so far, it was discovered that the nominal lending rate and the total credit had a positive impact on the profit of the five selected banks under review. Only exchange rate has a negative significance which is contrary to the other variables studied. The overall submission was that the variables employed are statistically significant as over 98 percent of them were explained at the long run. The researcher, therefore, recommends that to improve banks financial performance, the banks need a good regulatory environment that will enable them to expand their scope of business but strictly within the financial service industry and also good corporate governance that will allow for transparency and minimize fraud in the bank.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Financial Performance, Interest Rate, Liberalization, Total credit

Foreign Exchange Management and the Nigerian Economic Growth (1960 – 2012). (Review Completed - Accepted)

The study examined foreign exchange management and the Nigeria economic growth from 1970 to 2012. The scope of the study is limited to Nigeria. The empirical model for the study was based on the conclusion of our theoretical framework. The data used for this study were majorly sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Bulletin (2011). The ordinary least square estimation techniques within the error correction model (ECM) framework are employed in the study. The choice of the ECM is to enable it account for the explanatory potent of the regressions in both the short run and long run as well as ascertaining the dynamics of attaining long run equilibrium, an issue which is the key to studies related to macroeconomics variables one of which is the exchange rate. The Johansen-Joselius Co- Integration test is employed in this study, to test for the presence of a long run relationship between the dependent variable (exchange rate) and the independent variables. The result of the co-integration as revealed show that trace statistics and maximum Eigen values are greater than the critical values at 5% level of significance. It shows that there is a unique long run relationship among Y, EXCR, EXPT,IMP, INF and FDI. The result further shows that the explanatory variables explain and account for about 99% of variation in economics growth peroxide by GDP, which is an evidence of a good fit of the model. The f-statistics shows that the explanatory variables are jointly significant in explaining economic growth (dependent variable). The result above shows export and foreign direct investment are statistically significant in determining economic growth which considered at 5% and 10% respectively. However, exchange rate import and inflation are found to be statistically non-significant. It is against this back drop of the above findings, that it is recommended that effort be made to increase the consumption of made in Nigeria goods, which includes the usage of raw material that can be sourced locally by Nigerian industries in order to increase foreign exchange earnings. The implication of this is that local industries should be encouraged to look inward for their raw material. Having uncovered from the study that the nexus between economic growth and foreign exchange management being a short run relationship, it is necessary that the foreign exchange management policy initiatives be made to satisfy the shorts–run behavioral expectations of the variables used in uncovering this fact

Keywords: Error Correction Model, Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange Market, economic growth

Effects of Exchange Rate Liberalization on French Beans Exports in Kenya (Review Completed - Accepted)

The exports of French beans are one of the leading contributors to foreign exchange earnings in Kenya. Nevertheless, the economic impacts of exchange rate liberalization on French beans exports in Kenya are unclear. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the magnitude and direction of the effects of exchange rate liberalization on French beans exports from Kenya to its major trading partners in the European Union. Monthly data for a fixed exchange regime represented by the period from 1990- 1993 and a flexible regime represented by the period from 1994-2011 was used in the estimation of an export demand model. The empirical results show that the liberalization of the exchange rate led to an increase in the French beans export volumes from Kenya to the European Union. The paper recommends maintenance of a competitive exchange rate and export promotion in order to boost Kenya’s French beans exports.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Exports, Liberalization, Time Series

DOES INFLATION WEAKEN ECONOMIC GROWTH? EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA (Published)

The study aims at evaluating the link between inflationary rate and economic growth in Nigeria. It also examines the nature and form of association between inflationary rate and exchange rate as well as interest rates from 1979 t0 2010.Ordinary least squares approach in the form of multiple regression was adopted in examining the relationship among the variables while the causalities were evaluated using Granger Causality model. It is pertinent to check whether the short run relationships would be sustained in the long run. To achieve this, Johansen and Juselius cointegration technique was adopted while the variables were adjusted for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) tests for unit root. It was found that inflationary rate is negatively related with real gross domestic product while exchange rates and interest rates are positively related with inflationary rate though not to a very significant extent. This is sustainable even in the long run and the implication is that when inflationary rate is rising, it affects the economy negatively as growth is dampened. On causality, at both lag 2 and lag 4, the study reveals that there is no causality between inflationary rate and real gross domestic product. However, at lag 2, there is a unidirectional causality running from inflationary rate to interest rate and also a unidirectional causality running from interest rate to real gross domestic product. At lag 4, there is a unidirectional causality running from interest rate to inflationary rate and from interest rate to exchange rate and also a unidirectional causality running from exchange rate to real gross domestic product. Consequently, efforts should be geared towards keeping inflationary rate at a single digit level to enhance the growth and development of Nigeria economy and to ensure that macroeconomic activities are kept alive

Keywords: Cointegration, Exchange Rate, GDP, Granger, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate

Forecasting of Exchange Rate between Naira and US Dollar Using Time Domain Model (Published)

Most time series analysts have used different technical and fundamental approach in modeling and to forecast exchange rate in both develop and developing countries, whereas the forecast result varies base on the approach used or applied. In these view, a time domain model (fundamental approach) makes the use of Box Jenkins approach was applied to a developing country like Nigeria to forecast the naira/dollar exchange rate for the period January 1994 to December 2011 using ARIMA model. The result reveals that there is an upward trend and the 2nd difference of the series was stationary, meaning that the series was I (2). Base on the selection criteria AIC and BIC, the best model that explains the series was found to be ARIMA (1, 2, 1). The diagnosis on such model was confirmed, the error was white noise, presence of no serial correlation and a forecast for period of 12 months terms was made which indicates that the naira will continue to depreciate with these forecasted time period.

Keywords: AIC, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Autocorrelation Function, BIC, Exchange Rate, Partial Autocorrelation Function

Richard Cantillon’s Ideologies and its Implications for Economic Development in Nigeria (Published)

This paper examines and ascertains how the contributions of Richard Cantillon have been relevant to the development of the Nigerian economy. In doing this, the economic thoughts of Richard Cantillon were critically examined in order to see how these issues raised have been affecting the Nigerian economy. Political economy and descriptive approaches were used to x-ray the relevance of Richard Cantillon’s contributions to Nigeria’s development. His contributions among others include: the nature of wealth, social and economic organization of people, wages of labour, theory of values, population problems and the use of gold and silver, barter, prices, circulation of money, interest, foreign trade, foreign exchange and banking and credit. The findings of the study revealed that these contributions are of great relevance to economic development in generally, but have not specifically contributed to the development of Nigerian economy. This is seen in the areas of low per capita income, negative attitude to work, inevitable population problems, persistent increase in prices, high lending interest rate, unfavourable terms of trade, incessant and diversion of public funds into private business rather than the real economy, and without doubt Nigeria has no place in foreign trade. Based on the foregoing, it was concluded that all these ugly trends accounted for the reason why economic development is not at sight in Nigeria. Thus, it was recommended that the monetary authorities should initiate sound monetary policies. Also, these monetary policies should be complemented with effective fiscal policies in order to put the Nigerian economy back to path of economic growth and development.

Keywords: Economic Development, Exchange Rate, Fiscal Policies, Foreign Trade, Interest Rate, Monetary Policies, Money Supply, Wages of Labour