Epidemiological analysis and time prediction models of coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) spread in selected epicenters around the world; Nigeria as case study (Published)
The spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) in Nigeria from index to community cases is becoming alarming that what the future holds should be brought to bear. An analytical study and time prediction model have been conducted on the epidemiological spread of coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) with data collected from records of selected epicenters in Nigeria. The data was collected between March 1 and May 31, 2020. It can be shown that the highest daily infection in March was recorded on the 28th with 32 infections while the highest fatality rate was recorded on 24th with a rate of 2.3% and recorded daily infection of 10. As at the 31st, a total number of 139 confirmed cases were recorded in Nigeria with a fatality and discharge rates of 1.4 and 6.5% respectively. It can be deduced that the highest daily infection in Nigeria in the month of April was recorded on 30th, with daily infection of 204 confirmed cases. A highest discharge rate of 34.4% was recorded on 16th, with a fatality rate of 2.9% while the highest fatality rate of the month of April was 3.5% recorded on 18th, which has a discharge rate of 30.6% and a daily infection record of 49. As at April 30, 2020, Nigeria had recorded a total of 1932 confirmed cases with 58 deaths. It can also be deduced that the highest daily infection in Nigeria in the month of May was recorded on 30th, with daily infection of 553 confirmed cases. It can also be observed that the highest discharge and fatality rates for the month of May 2020 are 29.6% and 3.6% recorded on 31st and 2nd respectively. As at May 31, 2020, the total infection stood at 10162 confirmed cases and there seems to be a continuing upward trajectory for the situation under investigation. It can also be observed that the rate of discharged cases continued to surpass those of the fatality for the months of investigation. No doubts that the COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 was first recorded in Ogun state of Nigeria, but Lagos state has surpassed both the daily infections and the cumulative infections for the country. With collected data, MLR simple linear regression extension was used to estimate an outcome or target variable on the basis of two or more independent variables. The variables which are the three months data collected from daily infections, total confirmed case, total deaths and total discharged cases between March 1, 2020 and May 31, 2020 were used to propose regression equations for the prediction of the cases under study for anytime period.