Tag Archives: ardl model

The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on Economic Growth and Non-oil exports in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: An ARDL approach (Published)

Using annual data covering the period from 2000 to 2020 the effect of volatility was estimated on economic growth and crude oil prices on Saudi non-oil exports, each of the two sectors was chosen, Exports from manufacturing industries, agricultural exports, and high-tech exports to represent Non-oil export, also we Measuring the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  The study followed the application of the ARDL model to study the equilibrium relationship between all of the volatility in oil prices, the three export sectors. The results indicated that the sector Exports of manufacturing industries is the sector most affected by the fluctuation in the price of oil, while the results did not indicate the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship through which the sectors of agricultural exports and high-tech products are affected by the change in oil prices.The study recommends the need to increase investments for these twoSectors to secure a stable export proceeds that guarantee the stability of the Kingdom’s economic growth rates.To reach the above, we have relied on measuring the impact of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the period 2000-2020, based on a model the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).

Citation: Mahmoud Amin El-batanony, Hala Samir El ghawy, Zeinab Abdel Rashid, Engy Taser El Sheikh , . Safaa Salah El Dien, Wafaa Fangary Said  and  Mahmoud Farouk Mohamed Ghorab  (2022) The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on Economic Growth and Non-oil exports in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: An ARDL approach, International Journal of Development and Economic Sustainability, Vol.10, No.2, pp.49-61

Keywords: Co-integration, Non-Oil Exports, Oil prices, ardl model

Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Manufacturing performance in Nigeria (1981 – 2018) (Published)

Theoretically, and indeed empirically it has been postulated that Exchange Rate fluctuations has had a significant effect on manufacturing performance in terms of output growth and contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study aimed to examine the Exchange Rate fluctuations on manufacturing performance in Nigeria over a period of 37 years (from 1981-2018), using annual data obtained from collected from CBN, NBS and Index Mundi Nigeria. An ARDL approach was used for the analysis. The empirical results of the study shows that an exchange rate volatility has negatively affect the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector as can be seen from the from the respective coefficients of the estimated variables, , the long run relationship analysis and the causal relationship between the dependent and the independent variables. The study recommends encouraging and improving exchange rate stability in Nigeria as this may help improve the capacity of the country’s manufacturing sector, hence expand its contribution to GDP growth.

Keywords: Nigeria, ardl model, economic growth, exchange rate fluctuations, manufacturing performance