The study examined the costs and returns to bio-fortified cassava production and forecast the future farm size of bio-fortified cassava production in the study area. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 150 respondents in the study area. Primary data were used for the study which were collected through a well-structured questionnaire. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive, Markov chain, and budgetary analysis. The result of the study showed that the mean age of the respondents were 47(±13.77) with a mean years of experience of 14.62(±6.92). the result of the study showed that TMS 01/0593, TMS 01/0539 and TMS 01/0220 were the mostly grown varies of bio-fortified cassava varieties in the study area. The result of the budgetary analysis showed that the average net return (net farm income) from the production of bio-fortified cassava was ₦196710.95 with RORI of 224.95%. The result revealed that at 35% increase in cost of production, the rate of return on investment dropped to 140.70% in which the investment will not be viable. The bio-fortified cassava farmers have a great potential to boost production through increases in farm sizes of the bio-fortified cassava famers until the year 2026 when equilibrium would be attained at about 2.85ha. in other to adequately achieve these goals, more improved varieties of bio-fortified cassava should be provided, and also, infrastructures should be put in place to help boost farmers moral in their cause of production in the study area.
Keywords: Markov-Chain, Oyo State, Sensitivity Analysis, bio-fortified cassava, farm size
