Tag Archives: Trend

Trend Analysis of Rainfall Pattern in Enugu State, Nigeria. (Published)

Rainfall distribution pattern has been a major concern to Climatologists, Penologists, Agriculturist hydrologist and even to the ordinary man in the street. Rainfall is a critical index of climatological investigation and has major impacts on flora and fauna, as well as ecological setting and water resources management of any area.  Following the current moves by the governments to improve on agriculture; the pattern of rainfall is essential for indigenes of Enugu state since they are predominantly farmers. As the moves to encourage agriculture to ensure food security continues to gain ground and acceptability, information on rainfall probabilities is vital for the design of water supply and supplemental irrigation schemes and the evaluation of alternative cropping and of soil water management plans. This study has examined the pattern of rainfall in the state and observed some irregularities in the pattern. For government’s efforts towards improving agriculture to be fruitful, a more advanced technology of ensuring constant rain source is very vital.

Keywords: Agriculture, Enugu State, Food Security, Rainfall, Trend

Trend Analysis of Rainfall Pattern in Enugu State, Nigeria (Published)

Rainfall distribution pattern has been a major concern to Climatologists, Penologists, Agriculturist hydrologist and even to the ordinary man in the street. Rainfall is a critical index of climatological investigation and has major impacts on flora and fauna, as well as ecological setting and water resources management of any area. Following the current moves by the governments to improve on agriculture; the pattern of rainfall is essential for indigenes of Enugu state since they are predominantly farmers. As the moves to encourage agriculture to ensure food security continues to gain ground and acceptability, information on rainfall probabilities is vital for the design of water supply and supplemental irrigation schemes and the evaluation of alternative cropping and of soil water management plans. This study has examined the pattern of rainfall in the state and observed some irregularities in the pattern. For government’s efforts towards improving agriculture to be fruitful, a more advanced technology of ensuring constant rain source is very vital.

Keywords: Agriculture, Enugu State, Food Security, Rainfall, Trend

EVOLUTIONARY TREND, SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF, AND ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH MARKETS IN KANO METROPOLIS (Published)

The paper attempts to establish the evolutionary trend and spatial distribution of traditional marketplaces in Kano metropolis and as well evaluates organizational and operational issues that characterized the Kano business landscape on environmental perspectives. The methods used include: Analysis of Satellite Imageries of 2011; Inventory and Field Observation; Use of Official Records; In-depth Interviews; FGD; and Case Study. The results show that there are total of 43 existing markets and as well they are the strength of Kano business landscape. 22 are community markets; 7 metropolitan; 5 regional; and 9 international markets. The evolutionary trend shows that the Kano markets evolved in three main phases namely: the first generation markets; second generation; and the recent or contemporary markets, but unevenly distributed which has been found to have both negative and positive environmental repercussion. Moreover, the business landscape is characterized with the proliferation of super-stores, shopping malls and other trading avenues along major roads and streets which on their own sphere form another kind of market (the unconventional markets). Frequent conflagratory fire outbreak; absence of security and peace due to militant crusade; and operational issues such as inadequate electric power supply; noise pollution and ambient air contamination are the major challenges facing the growth and development of markets and the sustainability index of the entire Kano business landscape. Based on the scenario of Kano business landscape, a descriptive model was drawn which portrays how markets served as central controlling or coordinating unit in terms of interception of supplies and demands and discharging them accordingly. On that direction, it has been postulated that if the operational challenges inherent in the Kano business landscape are overcome and good governance has been sustained, Kano would experienced an industrial breakthrough in about 20 years and it will emerge as the first megalopolis in West Africa. It was therefore recommended that, markets should be included in the economic development plan of Kano; Environmental management system should be put in place; and Good governance should be pursued at all levels; among others.

Keywords: Distribution, Issues, Trend, and Kano, markets

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR MODELING AND DETECTING SEASONALITY PATTERN OF AUTO-CRASH CASES RECORDED AT FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION, OSUN SECTOR COMMAND (RS 111), OSOGBO (Published)

Motor accident is a major cause of mortality and disability in Nigeria, which
explains the reason for the establishment of Federal Road Safety Commission in 1988 to address
the carnage and maiming on the highways and roads. This paper employed Time Series statistical
tools to build model, and examine seasonality pattern of the number of cases of motor accident
recorded at the Federal Road Safety Commission, Osun Sector command using secondary data
collected from the record section of the command from 2006 to 2012. Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARIMA) depicts reduction in the recorded number of cases recorded. This result
was corroborated by Least Squares trend with quarterly decline of six (6) cases of motor accident.
The seasonal pattern clearly portrayed quarter four (October, November, and December) as the
season with high prevalence of motor accident. It was finally concluded that the Federal Road
Safety Commission has been performing to expectation in the manner it discharges her duties by
adjuring from the results of the analyses

Keywords: Model, Time Series, Trend, accident, road safety, seasonal

A Study on the Progress of Indian Cement Industry (Published)

The study was designed to investigate the the progress of Indian cements industry since 1991, in terms of its growth in installed capacity, production, exports, and value additions; In detail the research methodology used for the study that has focused on the past, present and the future performance of Indian Cement Industry (ICI) at the macro level and the Chettinadu Cement Corporation Limited (CCCL) at the micro level as a case firm. The study purely relies on secondary data. The secondary data were collected for a period of fifteen years (1991-92 to 2005-06) from the database maintained and made available by several organizations viz., Cement Manufacturers Association, Export Import Bank of India, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy etc. for the purpose of effective periodical analysis. In order to know the progress of ICI, annual time series data for the six variables were studied for trend, cyclical variation and random variation, as seasonal variation was not observable in the annual data. The estimated trend equations were evaluated for their goodness of fit and predictive power and found valid to draw inferences. The values of the six variables were projected to the next five years. Estimated values were adjusted for the likely effects of cyclical variations (c) the reliability of predicted values were evaluated with the help of forecasting error. In the end of the study implications and conclusion were provided.

Keywords: Cement, Indian, Industry, Manufacturers, Progress, Trend