Tag Archives: economic growth

Assessment of Agriculture to Business and Economic Growth in Ecowas Countries. (Published)

This study x-rayed agricultural sector as the engine of economic growth in Economic Community of West African Countries (ECOWAS); more so as the agricultural sector employs over 70% of the labour force and provides the means of livelihood for the greater population in the region. Furthermore, it is the believe that improvement in the agricultural sector productivity will likely enhance the per capita GDP growth of the ECOWAS. Data was collected using documentary evidence (secondary data). Time series methods of analysis such as panel unit root tests, panel co-integration test, panel co-integration regression method using fully modified ordinary last squares (FMOLS) model were employed for the analysis. The variables analysed include the GDP per capita (the dependent variable) and agricultural sector output per capita, capita stock per capita, industrial sector output per capita, services sector output per capita and government expenditure per capita (independent variables). The results established that agricultural sector output per capita, capita stock per capita and economic institutions exert no significant impact on per capita GDP of ECOWAS. However, government expenditure, industrial sector output and service sector output, all measured on per capita basis, significantly impacted on ECOWAS countries per capita GDP growth. The study concluded that only Government provision of services per capita, and industry sector output per capita significant stimulated growth in ECOWAS countries. Capital stock per capita and economic institutions did not. The study recommended efficient resources investment and functional institutions to further promote growth in the ECOWAS countries.

Keywords: Agriculture, Business, Per Capita GDP, economic growth

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Import, Export on the Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Empirical Study (Published)

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), export (EXPO) and import (IMP) in the economic growth of Pakistan from 1990 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach: The link of foreign direct investment (FDI), export (EXPO) and import(IMP) with economic growth is measured through multiple regression model. Foreign direct investment (FDI), export (EXPO) and import (IMP) treated as regrassors and gross domestic product (GDP) treated as regressand in this model.Eviews software used to analyze the annual time series data from 1990 to 2015. Findings: According to the findings, there is a negative and insignificant association between foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP while there is significant and positive relationship found of export (EXPO) and import (IMP) with GDP. Originality/value: The empirical findings of this research play a vital role for policy maker of Pakistan in formulation of FDI and trade policies.

Keywords: Export, Foreign Direct Investment, GDP, economic growth, import

Perception on the Naira Devaluation and Its Effects on Poverty Reduction in Nigeria (Published)

The crash of crude oil price has devastated Nigerian economy being a mono-product economy. The nation’s reserves have dropped and the Central Bank is finding it difficult to meet its import demands. There is agitation from investors and the IMF to devalue the currency to stimulate economic growth, encourage export and discourage import. The public thinks otherwise. The study revealed devaluation of the naira will not encourage significant demand for local goods but rather rise in the prices of local products which rise in direct proportion with imported substitutes thereby fuelling inflation. Also, the economy has remained neither diversified nor internationally competitive. It is recommended among others that government review the current import tariffs, promote incentives to encourage investment in local manufacturing, direct foreign direct investment (FDI) on manufacturing/productive industries with hundred per cent (100%) local raw materials and tax holidays.

Keywords: Devaluation, Inflation, Perception, Social Infrastructure, economic growth

Trade Openness and Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1990- 2015) (Published)

This study examines empirically the relationship between Trade openness and Economic growth in Nigeria. The study covered the period 1990 – 2015, using ARDL approach to cointegration.  The ARDL result confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between Economic Growth, Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Capital Formation. It was found that Trade Openness and Gross Capital Formation had positive and negative impacts respectively on growth rate of GDP in the short run. Therefore, this study concludes by recommending that; (i) trade openness should be regulated by government; from our result an increase in trade openness caused a decrease in our GDP (ii) FDI should be encouraged as it was seen to have significantly improved economic growth in Nigeria.

Keywords: Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL), Nigeria, economic growth, trade openness

Impact of Price Instability on Unemployment and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis (Published)

This study is an empirical examination of the impact of price instability on unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 to 2015. Main variables used in this study are unemployment, inflation rate (proxy for consumer price index), GDP growth rates, Foreign Direct Investment, Investment (proxied by Gross Fix Capital Formation) Interest Rate, Imports, Exports, Exchange Rate and Per Capita Income. The sources of data are statistical bulletins published by World Bank Development Indicators (WBDI) and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2015 respectively. There are three regression equations in which the relationship between dependent and independent variables have been tested. The first model is explaining the effect of inflation or price instability and other macroeconomic variables on GDP in Nigeria. The second model explains the effects of unemployment and other economic variables on real GDP while the third model is formulated to describe the effect of macroeconomic variables on unemployment in Nigeria. To achieve these objectives, stationarity tests were conducted with simple Ordinary Least Square using E-views version 8 software.  Results from Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philips-Perron unit root test reveals that all the series in the models were stationary, with evidence of a unique long run relationship among the variables in the model. Findings from the OLS regression output reveals the coefficients of imports, exports, exchange rate and manufacturing growth rate as having negative effect on the key dependent variables of gdp-growth rate, price instability and unemployment rate. On the contrary, the coefficients of investment, per capita income and foreign direct investment show positive relationship with the dependent variables in the model. Major policy recommendations of this study are as follows: Government should embark on policies that will reduce the number of imported goods drastically and encourage local production and consumption to encourage domestic industries. This will help reduce unemployment and inflation in Nigeria and improve the gross domestic product figures greatly. Furthermore, over the years, foreign partners in Nigeria has had cause to repatriate their investible funds back to their shores as Nigeria increasingly became unsafe destinations for businesses owing to streams of violence and kidnappings across the country. Government should therefore engage the various agitators and stakeholders across the nation such as the Niger-Delta militants, IPOD/MASSOB and Fulani herdsmen with a view to finding lasting solutions to their demand for genuine peace to be entrenched in the polity. This is one sure way to encourage more foreign inflow of capital for economic growth.

Keywords: OLS, Price Instability, Unemployment, economic growth

The Affects of Capital, Labor, Science and Techonology on Economic Growth of Daklak Province from 2011-2016 (Published)

Nowadays, economic growth is one of the central issues that attracting attentions of many countries in the first development stages (Edelstein Dan, 2015). As one of five provinces in Tay Nguyen, located in the border development triangle of Cambodia – Laos – Vietnam, Dak Lak has a strategic position of three countries in terms of politics, economy, society, national security and defense, ecological environment (Politburo, 2011).In the development process, Dak Lak has been exert to maintain a stable economic growth rate in many years, so it has increased the quality of people’s living (Politburo, 2011). However, in the development process, the economic has still grown in width, many potential have not been discovered and utilized effectively, the infrastructure is backward and the competitiveness is very low. In order to help the leaders have general, in-depth understanding about economic growth, the study based on methodology of meta-analysis, descriptive analysis and inferential analysis to evaluate the contribution of capital, labor and science and technology on the economic growth of Daklak province. From study results, the paper suggested some recommendations for promoting economic growth in the province.

Keywords: Capital, Cobb-Douglas, Icor, Labor, Tfp, economic growth

Does Money Market Spur Economic Growth in Nigeria? Granger Causality Approach (Published)

This study examined the relationship between money market and economic growth in Nigeria. The study adopted money market instruments such as treasury bills (TBs), commercial papers (CPs) and bankers’ acceptances (BAs) as proxy for money market (independent variables), and gross domestic product (GDP) as proxy for economic growth (the dependent variable). Secondary time series data for the variables were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics for the period 1989-2014. The study employed econometric techniques such as ADF, Unit Root Test, OLS, multiple regression and Granger Causality Test to analysed the study data; and found strong evidence that TBs, and CPs had positive and significant influence on GDP, while BAs had positive but insignificant influence on GDP in Nigeria. The granger causality test result revealed no directional causality relationship between TBs and GDP, meaning that TBs does not granger cause GDP and vice-versa. There was also no directional causality relationship between CPs and GDP, BAs and GDP. However, there exists bi-directional relationship running from CPs to TBs and BAs as it was established at 5 per cent level of significance. The study recommended among others that for the money market to influence meaningful economic growth and development in Nigeria, appropriate policies should be employed to strengthen and deepen the market.

Keywords: Bankers’ Acceptances, Commercial Papers, Gross Domestic Product, Money Market, Treasury Bills, economic growth

Does Money Market Spur Economic Growth In Nigeria? Granger Causality Approach (Published)

This study examined the relationship between money market and economic growth in Nigeria. The study adopted money market instruments such as treasury bills (TBs), commercial papers (CPs) and bankers’ acceptances (BAs) as proxy for money market (independent variables), and gross domestic product (GDP) as proxy for economic growth (the dependent variable). Secondary time series data for the variables were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics for the period 1989-2014. The study employed econometric techniques such as ADF, Unit Root Test, OLS, multiple regression and Granger Causality Test to analysed the study data; and found strong evidence that TBs, and CPs had positive and significant influence on GDP, while BAs had positive but insignificant influence on GDP in Nigeria. The granger causality test result revealed no directional causality relationship between TBs and GDP, meaning that TBs does not granger cause GDP and vice-versa. There was also no directional causality relationship between CPs and GDP, BAs and GDP. However, there exists bi-directional relationship running from CPs to TBs and BAs as it was established at 5 per cent level of significance. The study recommended among others that for the money market to influence meaningful economic growth and development in Nigeria, appropriate policies should be employed to strengthen and deepen the market.

Keywords: Bankers’ Acceptances, Commercial Papers, Gross Domestic Product, Money Market, Treasury Bills, economic growth

Tax Revenue and Nigerian Economic Growth (Published)

This study was designed to investigate the tax revenue and Nigerian economic growth for period of three decade, using time series data from 1986 to 2015. The objective of this study was to examine the significant difference between the effects of oil and non oil tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria. Data collected from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).The study utilized both descriptive and Paired Sample T-test with the aid of Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) Version 23.The findings showed that, oil and non oil tax revenue were positive and strongly correlated with Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) with coefficient( r = .902, P< 0.05) and (r = .975, P< 0.05). The results also showed that, there was significant difference between the effects of oil and non oil tax revenue on RGDP as shown ( t29 = 11.424 , P< 0.05) and ( t29 = 10.968, P< 0.05). Findings also showed that, oil and non oil tax revenue contributed 7.7% and 2.5 % to RGDP from 1986-2015. This research work concluded that, there was significant difference between the effects of oil and non oil tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria. There should be accountability and transparency from government officials on the management of revenue derived from taxation (oil and non oil) in Nigeria.

Keywords: Oil and Non Oil, Real Gross Domestic Product, Tax Revenue, economic growth

Savings-Investment and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria (Published)

Nigeria as a developing nation needs adequate savings to encourage investment and promote economic growth. Empirically, this work has made an attempt to analyze the impact of savings and investment on the growth of the Nigerian economy. From the result of the study conducted within the period 1970 to 2015, using a battery of contemporary econometric approach involving unit root test, co-integration test and error correction model it was found that factors such as Gross Domestic Savings (GDS), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Labour Force (LAF) and Savings Facility (SF) are the main drivers of economic growth in Nigeria. Furthermore, evidence from the investment model shows that Real Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) are the two drivers of Investment in Nigeria. This means that if there is proper capital accumulation in the form of savings, investment would be great and sustainable. The multiplier effect is on the well-being of the people through increased capital and output. The study recommended among others that; the government through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should ensure the reduction of reserve requirements of commercial banks in order to make available adequate funds in form of loans and advances for investment which will boost economic growth. Government should always maintain a good political atmosphere that is devoid of political upheavals because insecurity in the country has contributed immensely to the discouragement of the people from the cultivation of banking habit. More so, foreign direct investment will be discouraged in an environment ravaged with rancor. Banks should be encouraged to establish branches in the rural areas to discourage the rural dwellers from saving in their local saving boxes. This will bridge the gap between savings and investment. The government of Nigeria has a role to play by making policies that would encourage the spread of banks. This would be done by upgrading the standard of the Nigerian banking sector.   Labour force has been revealed to be a positive growth stimulant in the study. Thus, government and the private sector should ensure that there is realistic and practical curriculum development in schools that will evolve a more productive labour force. Finally, the Governor of the apex bank (CBN) and monetary policy committee should liaise with the necessary operators to ensure that there are realistic interest and inflation rates that will stimulate economic activities and bring about the requisite economic growth in Nigeria.

Keywords: Co-integration, Investment, Nigeria, Savings, economic growth

Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth in Nigeria(1980-2015) (Published)

The paper examined the impact of natural resource abundance on economic growth in Nigeria.  The objectives of the study were to examine the impact of petroleum production on Nigerian economy, the impact of natural gas on the Nigerian economy, the impact of coal on Nigerian economy and the impact of limestone extraction on Nigerian economy. The Secondary data on GDP, Petroleum Production, Natural gas, coal and limestone (Dependent and Independent variables) are obtained from the CBN statistical bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics. The econometrics method of OLS, co-integration and Error Correction Mechanism were used for the analysis. The result of the unit root test showed that all the variables (GDP, Petroleum production, Natural gas, coal and Limestone) were stationary. The parsimonious error correction model indicated that R2 is 52%, meaning that the dynamic model is a good fit. The Durbin Watson value of approximately 2.0, suggests a lesser level of autocorrelation. Furthermore, the coefficient of petroleum (PR) is positively signed but statistically not significant at 55 level with GDP. The coefficient of Natural Gas (NG) is positively signed but statistically not significant at 5% level with GDP.  The coefficient of coal (CL) is positively signed and statistically significant at 5% level with GDP.  The coefficient of limestone (LS) is positively signed but statistically not significant at 5% level with GDP. Based on this results, this paper we recommends that Nigerian government must as a matter of urgency, look beyond crude oil and natural gas but look inward in harnessing the huge natural resources in the country to engender growth and development of the economy. Also, there should be a stabilization in spending of natural resource proceed to ensure stable and moderate economic growth.

 

 

 

Keywords: Natural Resource, Natural Resource Abundance, economic growth

The Convergence Analysis of the Economic Growth of Asean+3 Countries and its Influencing Factors (Published)

ASEAN  is a geo-political and economic organization which is established on August 8, 1967. The objectives of the establishment of ASEAN include accelerating the economic growth and the social progress of cultural and social in Southeast Asia area. it is known that the income of ASEAN + 3 member countries is still very unbalanced with the index rate of an average of 0.98 per year. However, when it is viewed from year to year during the estimation period, the value of the Williamson Index tends to decrease, although it is very low. This shows the tendency of the movement of economic growth is increasingly convergent with the decreasing inequality level. The results of the analysis through calculation of Williamson Index are also in accordance with the results of the analysis conducted by panel data method. The result of panel data analysis shows that there is conditional and unconditional convergence process of economic growth of ASEAN + 3 countries because the dependent variable lag coefficient of -0.1 and -0.2 is between -1 and 0.

Keywords: Developing Country, Gross Domestic Product, Income, economic growth

The Tenuous Relationship between Oil Revenue and Nigeria’s Economic Growth (Published)

This study examined the relationship between revenue generation and economic growth in Nigeria during the 45-year period, 1971 to 2015. This period heralded the sweet side of global energy crisis that precipitated the petrodollar windfall following steep rise in crude oil prices and the sour side that saw the economy shrink as a result of downward spiral of or crash in global energy prices and/or decline in oil production (slump non-oil boom). Using the ANCOVA model, the study expressed the change in growth rate of GDP as a function of various dimensions of tax, chiefly, change in period lag values of value added tax, personal income tax, company income tax, petroleum profit tax and custom and excise duties with a dummy variable that captures the contribution of oil revenue windfall. The results showed no significant difference in average changes in economic growth between the oil boom and oil slump periods. This suggests that Nigeria’s petrodollar windfall had no significantly stimulating effect on the country’s growth and development trajectory during the 45 years. The findings of this study adumbrate the anecdotal evidence of poor resource governance architecture that has characterized not just Nigeria’s petroleum industry but also the country’s macroeconomic management. The resonance with, and the attendant lesson from, the Dutch Disease Syndrome sequel to the country’s historicity of mismanagement of resources including the petro-dollar windfalls, is the major policy implication of this study

Keywords: Dutch Disease, Nigeria, Oil Boom And Slump, Oil Revenue Windfall, Resource Course, economic growth

Unemployment Rate, Gender Inequality and Economic Growth in Nigeria “A Short-Run Impact Analysis” (Published)

This paper examines the short-run impact of gender inequality (proxy by primary and secondary school enrollment) and economic growth (real gross domestic product) on unemployment rate in Nigeria, and also the study determines how much of the forecast error variance of unemployment can be explained by exogenous shocks from variables (gender inequality, economic growth, and population growth rate). Thus, the study using Engel Granger Error Correction Model and Dynamic Stochastic Variance Decomposition Model on a time series data collected from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The error correction results in both model 1 and model 2 are robust and consistent with their signs; the impact of gender inequality is positive in both short run models, but significant only in model 1 before the control variables were introduced. Again, the variance decomposition result indicates that gender Inequality emits the highest impulse on the rate of unemployment at 34.735% on average of the ten periods. While economic growth has a negative impact on the rate of unemployment for the two models and exerted only 8.438% impulse on average. The variance decomposition results also showed that unemployment rate transmitted on average of 78.453% impulse on itself for the 10periods under review. Exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross capital formation emitted 28.68%, 10.78%, and 6.81% respectively on average on unemployment rate. Finally, population growth rate transmitted 5.59% impulse on unemployment. There is a long run relationship between the variables and the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium is 52%.  Thus, we conclude that gender inequality is a strong factor of unemployment and policy makers and government should embark on developing laws that will reduce/eradicate gender disparity in Nigeria.

Keywords: Error Correction Model, Gender Inequality, Unemployment, Variance Decomposition, economic growth

Inflation, Unemployment and Economic Growth: Evidence from the VAR Model Approach for the Economy of Iraq. (Published)

This study investigates the impact of inflation and unemployment on the economic growth of Iraq. Considering the fact that the majority of the studies on the Phillips Curve have been done in the context of developed economies and on an aggregate level, this study focuses on Iraq, a single developing economy (a disaggregated level) and aims to empirically analyse the impact of Unemployment and inflation on economic growth in the economy of Iraq. The research results indicate that there exist an equilibrium impact between unemployment and inflation in Iraq thereby supporting the validity of the Phillips Curve hypothesis

Keywords: Inflation, Iraq, Philips Curve, Unemployment, VAR Approach, economic growth

Development Aid Impact on Economic Growth through Cross-Border Trade: Case of Waemu (Published)

The effectiveness of development assistance in the economic growth of developing countries and especially in their trade is complex and often discussed. This article tries to have a look on the cross-border trade situation of WAEMU member states and the impact of development aid on their economic growth through cross-border trade, which is seen as a driver of the economic growth of countries. The results of the GMM and the individual specific effects on the panel data for the period 2005-2015 showed a low positive impact of aid on economic growth through cross-border trade. These results have, however, raised other problems.

 

Keywords: Cross-border trade, Development aid, economic growth

Export Diversification Determinants in West African Sub-Region (Published)

This paper empirically studies the export diversification determinants in west Africa sub-region as diversification is critical for the region to promote sustainable development and economic transformation. The study used regression to analyze the data sourced from 17 west African countries from year 1995-2015. The results suggest that per capital income, human capital, investment, geographical location and good governance are significant drivers of export diversification, while terms of trade and population have negative relationship with export diversification in Africa. The evidence shows that export diversification is necessary in managing sustainable development in Africa. The study recommend among other things that the region should come up with an efficient governance that formulate and implement sound economic policies, create investment friendly environment and should pursue an aggressive process of export diversification that will result in buoyant and robust economy which will reduce high dependent on imported goods.

 

Keywords: African continent, Developing Economy, Export diversification, West Africa, economic growth

Effect of Petroleum Profit Tax on Economic Growth in Nigeria (Published)

The study examines the effect of petroleum profit tax on economic growth of Nigeria. Income from petroleum taxes is the proxy for PPT while economic growth was measured using Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The research adopted expos-facto research as secondary data were used for the analysis. Data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Federal Statistical Bureau. The study covered twelve year period (2004-2015). Time series data were analyzed using the simple linear regression.  The results reveals that  PPT had positive and significant effect on Nigerian GDP. The study recommends that the government should provide the necessary human and material infrastructures that are needed to support petroleum business so they can earn more income that will boost taxation.

Keywords: Gross Domestic Product, Nigeria, Petroleum Profit Tax, economic growth

Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Tanzania: A Time Series Analysis (Published)

This study empirically examines the long-run and short-run relationship between government expenditure and Economic growth in Tanzania over the period of 1996-2014 making the use of annual secondary time series data. The Error Correcting Model (ECM) is employed to examine the long-run and short-run estimates of parameters. In addition to that the granger causality test is employed to determine whether government expenditures granger causes economic growth. In the long-run government expenditure is found to be statistically significant and has positive relationship with economic growth. The short -run estimates show there is no significant relationship between government expenditures and economic growth.  The results of granger causality test show uni-directional causality running from economic growth to government expenditures. The government of Tanzania should improve in the allocation of resources in its development expenditure and social services expenditure and channel such expenditure to allow for private sector participation and infrastructure development in order to accelerate economic growth.

Keywords: Government Expenditure, Tanzania, Time Series Analysis, economic growth

An Assessment of the Casual Relationship between Economic Growth and Indirect Taxes in Nigeria (Published)

The study examines the causal relationship between economic growth and indirect taxes in Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was employed and time series data were sourced from Central Bank Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin of various years 1994-2014. Multiple regression inferential statistics was used for data analysis. The result reveals that VAT has a positive significance effect on GDP. This is because the computed t-statistic of 3.142 is greater than the critical value table value of 2.120. The result of the second hypothesis also showed that the computed t- statistic of 4.557 is greater than the critical table value of 2.120 thus, proving that CED actually has a positive significance effect on GDP. The study conclude and that VAT and CED as indirect taxes contributes to economic growth in Nigeria, hence government should intensify effort to ensure immediate response of payment by the general public as flow of fund will encourage faster economic growth.

Keywords: Custom and Excise duties, Gross Domestic Product, Value Added Tax, economic growth

  • Our Journal Publishing Partners